Assessing the Impact of Structural Change in Sustainable Development
As the world grapples with the urgency of addressing climate change and environmental degradation, the role of structural change has become increasingly pivotal. Scientific evidence highlights the transformative power of modifying the very foundations that shape our production and consumption systems. From political and economic institutions to technological infrastructure and societal narratives, structural determinants profoundly influence the sustainability of our lifestyles.
However, quantifying the impact of these structural shifts remains a complex challenge for researchers and policymakers alike. While some forms of structural change, such as the rate of building renovations or shifts in the energy mix, can be more readily measured, others – like evolving societal understandings of well-being or the declining influence of the growth paradigm – defy easy quantification. This article explores the diverse approaches that researchers have employed to assess the influence of structural change on the sustainability of consumption and lifestyles, drawing insights from a range of EU-funded projects.
Defining Structures and Structural Change
At the outset, it is important to establish a shared understanding of what we mean by “structure” and “structural change”. Structures exist as formal and informal, material and ideational institutions that shape patterned human activities. They extend beyond the individual, existing at various levels – from the global to the local – and encompass political, economic, technological, and societal dimensions.
Structural change, then, involves the transformation of these underlying frameworks, whether reactive (in response to crises or resource constraints) or proactive (through intentional planning for sustainability). While some structural changes may be more visible, like specific policies or regulations, others are deeply embedded and harder to identify, such as dominant cultural narratives or the organizing principles of the economic system.
Quantifying the Impact of Structural Change
Researchers in the field of sustainable consumption and lifestyles have employed a diverse array of methods to assess the impact of structural change, each with its own strengths and limitations.
Input-Output Analysis: Environmentally-extended input-output (EE-IO) analysis has been a go-to tool for calculating the greenhouse gas implications of socioeconomic activities across sectors and regions. By adjusting supply and use tables to reflect IPCC scenarios or policy changes, EE-IO can model the emissions impacts of specific structural shifts, such as a transition to electric mobility or changes in dietary patterns. However, it struggles to capture the influence of broader, more abstract structures, like shifts in societal narratives or the power of vested interests.
Survey-based Approaches: Surveys offer the ability to gather large-scale, representative data on perceptions and evaluations of structural factors, from economic incentives to technological innovations. They can provide insights into how individuals and households react to changes in their context. Yet surveys tend to be limited in their ability to capture the complexities of structural dynamics, particularly when it comes to deeply embedded political or ideational structures.
Qualitative Analysis and Expert Assessments: Combining qualitative data gathering (e.g., interviews, workshops) with quantitative methods can offer a more holistic understanding of structural impacts. Approaches like the PESTEL analysis, which involves experts ranking the importance of different political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal factors, can shed light on the relative significance of various structures. However, these expert-based assessments inevitably reflect subjective perspectives and may struggle to fully capture the nuances of structural interrelationships.
Statistical Analysis of Existing Datasets: Researchers have also leveraged statistical analysis of macro-level datasets to explore the influence of demographic, economic, political, technological, and geographic structures. While this can provide valuable insights into the impacts of more tangible structural elements, it remains challenged in assessing the influence of less visible, ideational structures or the potential for disruptive, system-wide change.
Experimental Approaches: Some projects have incorporated experimental components, such as testing the effects of various “interventions” (e.g., economic incentives, information campaigns) on household behaviors and attitudes. These approaches can offer granular insights into the role of specific structural factors, but their applicability is often limited to more immediate, observable impacts.
Across these diverse methods, a common theme emerges: each approach sheds light on particular aspects of structural change, while struggling to fully capture the impact of deeper, more complex structures. Integrating multiple frameworks, drawing on both quantitative and qualitative data, offers the best opportunity to assemble a comprehensive understanding of structural dynamics and their influence on sustainability.
Structures Shaping Sustainable Consumption and Lifestyles
Sustainable consumption and lifestyles research has considered a wide range of structures, operating at different levels and across various domains. These include:
Political Structures: From broader institutional setups to specific regulations, policies, and the influence of vested interests, political structures have emerged as particularly impactful. Projects have explored the role of citizen participation, the stringency and coherence of regulatory frameworks, and the power dynamics shaping sustainability-oriented decision-making.
Societal Structures: Formal and informal institutions, cultural traditions, social norms, and narratives about well-being and justice have all been identified as influential on consumption patterns and the uptake of sustainable behaviors. Issues of equity, access to resources, and the gendered dimensions of energy use have also been highlighted.
Economic Structures: The presence of economic (dis)incentives, the internalization of ecological and social costs, and the characteristics of energy and other markets have been shown to shape the sustainability of consumption choices. The overarching role of the growth paradigm has also emerged as a crucial structural factor.
Technological and Material Structures: The availability and accessibility of energy-efficient products, the characteristics of the built environment, and the overall infrastructure for energy provisioning, mobility, and resource use have been recognized as important structural determinants.
Importantly, many of these structures intersect and interact, creating complex dynamics that influence the sustainability transformation. Capturing these interdependencies is crucial for understanding the potential leverage points for catalyzing change.
Challenges and the Way Forward
The diversity of structures shaping sustainable consumption and lifestyles, combined with the inherent difficulties in quantifying their impacts, pose significant challenges for researchers and policymakers. Particular difficulties arise when attempting to assess the influence of deeper, more abstract structures, such as societal narratives or the organizing principles of the political-economic system.
While qualitative approaches can offer valuable insights into these less tangible structures, the policy arena often demands quantifiable evidence. Integrating multiple methods, from input-output analysis to surveys and expert assessments, can help to build a more comprehensive understanding. However, the limitations of each approach must be acknowledged, and the interpretation of results should carefully consider what these methods are able to capture – and what they cannot.
Ultimately, the pursuit of sustainable development requires us to grapple with the profound transformations of the structures that shape our world. By continuing to refine and expand our methodological toolbox, we can work towards a more nuanced and actionable understanding of the impacts of structural change – a critical step in steering our societies towards a sustainable future.
